Onwards and Upwards?
BTC technical analysis from the best in the business
Strategic View (3 to 12 Months)
On a long-term scale the current chart configuration shows BTCUSD forming a classic consolidation phase after a surging move initiated in 2016. BTCUSD has already shaped the larger part of the setback reaching major Fibonacci key levels between 61.8% and 76.4%. 4200 remains a key support to consider for the new uptrend expected in coming months.
Preferred case (Bullish) : The long-term view preference is to buy any dips between the current level and 5450 in anticipation of a significant new uptrend with a break above 11700/13300 indicating upside confirmation level of this uptrend. If surpassed with momentum, both 23800 and 34000 are possibilities.
11700/13300 is a key level to consider, only by surpassing 13300 with momentum would it signal the end of the consolidation current consolidation phase.
Alternative case (Bearish) : Breaking below 4200 on a weekly close would confirm a direct drop to 2500 with a further collapse risk then to the 500 area.
Tactical View (1 to 4 Weeks)
Reminder: Last week the market challenged 6200, a key pivot level, before engaging the rise we have anticipated. The bullish scenario is still valid. On a mid-term scale, the most likely scenario on the current level consists of a finish of the consolidation pattern within the current range before engaging in an upside swing towards 9300. This is our first longer-term target.
Preferred case (Bullish) : Further rise expected, reliant on a hold above the pivot level at 6100. 6930 currently acts as the upside confirmation level. If 6930 can be surpassed with momentum, we expect 7550, with 7950 also a possibility.
Alternative case (Bearish) : If we break below 6100, the market will reintegrate the bearish dynamic towards the lower part of the daily chart range at 5550. An intermediate acts as support at 5850.
Key Technical Elements:
- Elliot wave most likely account calling for a start of new impulsive wave towards 7550
- Upper part of consolidation pattern at 6930 (Daily basis)
- RSI indicator progress in positive zone and the 34 MA actually at 40 keeps further upside potential towards 60/65
- Key turning point from Fibonacci level at 6100
Automata is the bridge between cutting edge banking
and automated investment management.