Onwards and Upwards?

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BTC technical analysis from the best in the business

Strategic View (3 to 12 Months)

On a long-term scale the current chart configuration shows BTCUSD forming a classic consolidation phase after a surging move initiated in 2016. BTCUSD has already shaped the larger part of the setback reaching major Fibonacci key levels between 61.8% and 76.4%. 4200 remains a key support to consider for the new uptrend expected in coming months.

Preferred case (Bullish) : The long-term view preference is to buy any dips between the current level and 5450 in anticipation of a significant new uptrend with a break above 11700/13300 indicating upside confirmation level of this uptrend. If surpassed with momentum, both 23800 and 34000 are possibilities.

11700/13300 is a key level to consider, only by surpassing 13300 with momentum would it signal the end of the consolidation current consolidation phase.

Alternative case (Bearish) : Breaking below 4200 on a weekly close would confirm a direct drop to 2500 with a further collapse risk then to the 500 area.

BTCUSD Daily Chart

Tactical View (1 to 4 Weeks)

Reminder: Last week the market challenged 6200, a key pivot level, before engaging the rise we have anticipated. The bullish scenario is still valid. On a mid-term scale, the most likely scenario on the current level consists of a finish of the consolidation pattern within the current range before engaging in an upside swing towards 9300. This is our first longer-term target.

Preferred case (Bullish) : Further rise expected, reliant on a hold above the pivot level at 6100. 6930 currently acts as the upside confirmation level. If 6930 can be surpassed with momentum, we expect 7550, with 7950 also a possibility.

Alternative case (Bearish) : If we break below 6100, the market will reintegrate the bearish dynamic towards the lower part of the daily chart range at 5550. An intermediate acts as support at 5850.

BTCUSD 3-Hour Chart

Key Technical Elements:

  • Elliot wave most likely account calling for a start of new impulsive wave towards 7550
  • Upper part of consolidation pattern at 6930 (Daily basis)
  • RSI indicator progress in positive zone and the 34 MA actually at 40 keeps further upside potential towards 60/65
  • Key turning point from Fibonacci level at 6100

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