Bullish Break Imminent?
Weekly technical analysis, fresh from the Automata Financial Team
Strategic View (3 to 12 Months)
On a long-term scale the current chart configuration shows BTCUSD forming a classic consolidation phase after a surging move initiated in 2016. BTCUSD has already shaped the larger part of the setback reaching major Fibonacci key levels between 61.8% and 76.4%. 5450/4200 remains a key support to consider for the new uptrend expected in coming months.
Preferred case (Bullish) : The long-term view preference is to buy any dips between the current level and 5450 in anticipation of a significant new uptrend with a break above 11700/13300 indicating upside confirmation level of this uptrend. If surpassed with momentum, both 23800 and 34000 are possibilities.
11700/13300 is a key level to consider, only by surpassing 13300 with momentum would it signal the end of the consolidation current consolidation phase.
Alternative case (Bearish) : Breaking below 4200 on a weekly close would confirm a direct drop to 2500 with a further collapse risk then to the 500 area.
Key Technical Elements
76,4% Fibonacci support level at 4200
61,8% Fibonacci Level+ Autosimilar move are resistance at 11700 and 13300
Elliot corrective wave (B) in progress
Moving average resistance at 7445
RSI (weekly is still acting as resistance)
Tactical View (1 to 4 Weeks)
*Reminder: Last week the market remained above the 6200 key pivot level and reached the buying area at 6500. The bullish scenario is still valid.*
On a mid-term scale, the most likely scenario on the current level consists of a finish of the consolidation pattern within current range before engaging in an upside swing towards 9300.
Preferred case (Bullish) : Further rise expected holding above pivot area at 6200/6330 towards 7445 and 7725.
Alternative case (Bearish) : Breaking below 6200/6330 would result in the market reintegrating a bearish dynamic towards the lower part of the daily chart range at 5845/5450.
Key Technical Elements
Elliot wave most likely account calling for a start of new impulsive wave towards 7445
Upper part of the consolidation at 7725 (Daily basis)
RSI indicator progress above 50% with a potential towards 85%
Key turning point from Fibonacci level at 6200
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